Current
August 7, 2026
Market data at the 2026-08-07 session. Base year TTM to 2026-06-30 (GOOGL) and 2026-04-26 (NVDA).
| Rating | Spot | Bear / base / bull | Expected value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alphabet (GOOGL) | SHORT | $354.24 | $105.48 / $186.74 / $433.18 | $240.36 (−32.1%) |
| Nvidia (NVDA) | NO POSITION | $223.90 | $67.39 / $197.39 / $437.47 | $224.91 (+0.5%) |
What changed from August 6. Forecast-year capex is now anchored on management guidance where guidance exists, replacing an extrapolation that had put Alphabet's 2026 capex at $170.4bn against a guided $195–205bn. Alphabet's $25.0bn note offering priced on August 6 is carried through the equity bridge, and the $40bn at-the-market equity programme is disclosed as authorised and undrawn. Nvidia's year-1 revenue is now checked against its reported and guided quarters. Prices, consensus estimates and average dollar volume refreshed.
Superseded
August 6, 2026
First edition in the buy-side memo format: rating, variant versus consensus, Shapley price-to-value bridge, expected value, sizing cascade and dated kill criteria.
| Rating | Spot | Bear / base / bull | Expected value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alphabet (GOOGL) | SHORT | $357.94 | $109.76 / $190.76 / $435.58 | $243.96 (−31.8%) |
| Nvidia (NVDA) | NO POSITION | $218.99 | $67.39 / $197.39 / $437.47 | $224.91 (+2.7%) |
Why it was superseded. Its Alphabet forecast held the June-quarter capex rate flat for the rest of 2026, giving $170.4bn — below the $195–205bn range management had guided to on July 22, two weeks before the edition was published. The build had a check that year-1 capex could not fall below capex already reported, but nothing that compared it to guidance, so nothing caught it. Kill criterion k2 was also unreachable: it called for exiting half the position if FY2027 capex guidance came in below $110bn, a level 2026 spending had already passed twice over.
Superseded
August 4, 2026
Screen-grade intrinsic-value reports with a formula-driven companion workbook — the generation before the memo format. Retained for comparison.
| Status | Spot | Downside / base / upside | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alphabet (GOOGL) | Screen-grade | $377.65 | $97.73 / $197.68 / $294.42 |
| Nvidia (NVDA) | Screen-grade | $211.94 | $72.55 / $147.82 / $250.55 |
Why it was superseded. Forecasts were independent estimates with no variant stated against consensus, no decision layer, and no position implication — a valuation rather than a recommendation. It also carried a bare EBIT-margin assumption instead of deriving EBIT from a depreciation schedule, which is the choice the current memos are built on.